Population Statistics/Demographics

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Craig
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Re: Population Statistics/Demographics

Postby Craig » 8 years 9 months ago (Tue Feb 08, 2011 11:51 pm)

HaaDeeCee wrote:
In another thread on this forum I showed that a different approach to the number of gassings is to use the official survivor statistics as published by Poland in 1990, Israel in 2000, Germany in 2005, and the mortality rates for various European countries as published by the American Institute of Public Health in 1948. (All dates may vary by +/- a year or so as I am narrating from memory).

In that posting I showed, using the data by the above-cited references, that NOBODY could have been killed in the concentration camps because the calculation shows that in order to have the claimed number of survivors in 2000 or 2005, and using the highest mortality rates of the American health institute, more "survivors" were necessary in 1945 than the gassings claimed. Using a lower mortality rate from the published table would increase the number of requisite survivors in 1945.


I


I love this line of thinking can we take it back say 25 years and have the numbers from then to extrapolate it even further?

Craig
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Re: Population Statistics/Demographics

Postby Craig » 8 years 9 months ago (Wed Feb 09, 2011 12:37 am)

Barrington James

How did you get your (2) did you use death rates, I really enjoyed your post, but had a hard time following the where you got the number of israli Jews in 1945? Thanks

Barrington James
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Re: Population Statistics/Demographics

Postby Barrington James » 8 years 9 months ago (Thu Feb 10, 2011 9:35 am)

Craig wrote:Barrington James

How did you get your (2) did you use death rates, I really enjoyed your post, but had a hard time following the where you got the number of israli Jews in 1945? Thanks


Hello Craig..Thanks for your great question. My thinking went like this: There were two groups of Jewish survivors still alive in 2000…the Jews of Israel and the Jews living all over the world from South Africa, to Australia, to the USA.... I figured the Jews of Israel would be the ‘purest” group to work with; they would not have assimilated into the population as much as the other Jews do or did.

In any case I still had a problem. How does one decide on the death rate of such a closed population as the Jews of Israel, for the death rates are usually given in terms of populations that are both growing, giving birth, and dying. And any births from this group,,though there were many, would not be a survivor; the survivors were just dying.

Another important factor, the most important factor was that Vad Vashem in Israel had more or less solved the problem for me.. They had done a prediction on the number of Holocaust survivors who would be still alive in the years from 2002 until 2020. They did not give the formula for this prediction; maybe I should have asked them for it, but I didn’t. Instead, using my calculator and something called regressional analysis I came up with a second degree function that seemed to fit the data. I then used this equation, this function, to determine the number of Israeli Jews who must have been alive in 1945, (2) in the equation, and then the fraction or ratio to calculate the number of Jews who must have survived the Holocaust.

However I would be the first to say that a tiny error in my formula could very well lead to a big error in my final calculations.

I also tried to do the whole problem as one would do any problem involving compound interest using the function P(t)= P(1+i)^n where P(t) is the population in year t, P, is the present population ( 1,200, 000 or whatever), and i is the death rate, and n is the number of years since 1945. However this formula is not perfect either because i is not a constant in this case. The death rate, i, would be a function of time, not a constant. The death rate, i ,would of course go up over the years...in any case using a constant death rate of i equal to 2%, 2.5% and 3% I got the number of survivors to be 3.6, 4.8 and 6.4 million. …so you can see the problem…

To tell you the truth I was hoping that someone with more time and a better understanding of statistics would take my solution and improve it. So far no one wants to risks it. However, come to think of it, I do know some people who make a living with this sort of stuff…I will give then a call..and get back to you.

Thanks again…BJ
You can fool too many of the people most of the time.

Craig
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Re: Population Statistics/Demographics

Postby Craig » 8 years 9 months ago (Fri Feb 11, 2011 1:38 am)

BJ

Thanks for the reply I look forward to what your experts have to say. Thanks

The Warden
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Re: Population Statistics/Demographics

Postby The Warden » 8 years 8 months ago (Sat Mar 05, 2011 12:48 pm)

Another example of faulty methodology:

11. Controversial Numbers

The number of people who fell victim to the extermination actions in Kulmhof/Chelmno is not known. The various statements differ by hundreds of thousands and are as follows: 11,000 (Reitlinger, p. 101), 34,000 (Delarue,[37] p. 257); 54,990 (Faschimus - Getto - Massenmord,[38] p. 285); at least 100,000 (Klee, p. 371); more than 100,000 (Hilberg, Destruction, p. 572); 150,000 (Hilberg, Vernichtung, p. 604); at least 152,565 (Massentötungen, p. 145); 300,000 (Höhne, p. 431); more than 300,000 (Massentötungen, p. 145); 349,000 (Dawidowicz, Krieg, p. 139; Nellessen, p. 57); at least 340,000 (IMT, Vol. VIII, p. 364); 360,000 (Gilbert,[16] map p. 169). There are certainly more numbers in other works, but the selection shown here is sufficient to prove that one cannot talk about certainty of knowledge. Most of the numbers are accompanied with notes stating that these are only estimates. Most authors think, however, that the actual number of victims could also be many times higher.

The basis for these estimates is the deportations of the Jewish population of Lodz and the surrounding areas. The literature assumes that the evacuatees were brought to Kulmhof/Chelmno and were killed there.

http://www.vho.org/tr/2003/4/Weckert400-412.html
Why the Holocaust Industry exists:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2A81P6YGw_c


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