Holocaust Demographics

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Holocaust Demographics

Postby nickterry » 7 years 1 month ago (Fri Sep 14, 2012 2:24 pm)

Despite what I said in the other 'challenge' thread, I have decided that I will start a new topic which has been discussed already on the 'challenge' thread, namely Holocaust demographics. This is a topic which revisionists have addressed on many occasions here and elsewhere.

I propose that this thread be used to discuss ONLY the demographics of the Holocaust, as per the one-topic-per-thread rule, but with appropriate leeway since "the Holocaust" and its numbers is a big subject. The issue of demographics inevitably covers things like the numbers of victims and numbers of survivors. It does not cover methods or forensics or any other issues which belong in other threads.

I think this is a topic where revisionists need to revise their ideas, to be frank. Not much work has been done by revisionists on these issues since Sanning in the 1980s. A great deal more data and information is available however, and a lot on the internet. As a non-revisionist I can highlight some of that new info. I have already corrected some basic mistakes about these issues in the past, and I think it would be interesting for some members here.

I do not propose that this be a short intensive debate but rather that the thread be ongoing for some time. Term does start next week and I cannot guarantee to be around all the time. If after one term I have been treated civilly by thread participants and not harassed to discuss other things, then I will consider debating something else.

To start things off, I will simply state that following the work of people like Raul Hilberg, I regard the most probable number of Jewish Holocaust victims to be 5.1 to 5.3 million, this number being determined by statistical information, documents and the like, not by 'counting bodies' (which is a matter of forensics, and has not been done with any mass murder in the 20th Century). The 5.1 to 5.3 million victims have not appeared alive anywhere after the end of WWII in 1945. They are in the broadest sense, 'missing' much like the 1 million German soldiers still missing in action from WWII whose graves have not been found.

A central claim of revisionism is that "six million" did not die. This is at the very least one of the main planks of revisionism, separate to issues about mass graves and gas chambers. A number of revisionist arguments are advanced to make the claim that six million did not die, eg that there were 'too many' survivors. That is the kind of thing I propose to be debated in this thread, since it has been debated already in other threads without a non-revisionist around. The Red Cross statistics is a closely related sub-issue (about the number of dead). Emigration before during and after the war is an inevitable sub-issue.

I would ask that the moderator please indicate his/her agreement to the above suggestion. I especially want it to be clarified that this is 'one topic per thread' and not to have this changed randomly when someone starts talking about mass graves, which is not something I consider to be part of "demographics". Or if the 'one topic per thread' rule means one can only discuss survivors but not deaths then please say so and I will just go somewhere else.

I would also ask that a member post to comment on the 'ground rules' above so everyone is roughly on the same starting-page.

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Re: Holocaust Demographics

Postby Hannover » 7 years 1 month ago (Fri Sep 14, 2012 4:06 pm)

Nick Terry makes claims about Jewish demographics which are supposedly linked to the alleged mass murders of Jews in 'gas chambers', but cannot present scientific forensic evidence which proves the alleged 'gas chambers'. That is as illogical as it gets. I can see why he refuses to debate the alleged 'gas chambers'; he cannot, will not. Nick Terry dodges the most critical issue completely. Quite telling.

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If it can't happen as alleged, then it didn't.

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Re: Holocaust Demographics

Postby nickterry » 7 years 1 month ago (Fri Sep 14, 2012 4:33 pm)

Hannover wrote:Nick Terry makes claims about Jewish demographics which are supposedly linked to the alleged mass murders of Jews in 'gas chambers', but cannot present scientific forensic evidence which proves the alleged 'gas chambers'. That is as illogical as it gets. I can see why he refuses to debate the alleged 'gas chambers'; he cannot, will not. Nick Terry dodges the most critical issue completely. Quite telling.

- Hannover


You're off topic for this thread. You are violating the one-topic-per-thread rule. Gas chambers is one topic. The number of survivors and 'missing' in the Holocaust can be discussed without the slightest reference to gas chambers. 50% of the victims of the Holocaust are not held to have died in gas chambers anyway. Nobody sensible has ever claimed 'six million gassed', that's never been an "official" claim.

The numbers issue cuts both ways, Hannover. If revisionists can show convincingly that 5+ million Jews were not "missing" from Europe in 1945 then they will go a long way to convincing more people. If revisionists cannot reduce the number of "missing" then they will forever have a problem. You can say that this isn't up to revisionism to work out what happened, but it's exactly the issue which Rassinier, Sanning and others discussed in the past. It's exactly the issue which astro3 raised by pointing to compensation claims or saying 'too many survivors'. It's exactly the issue which is raised when somebody claims that there were 'not enough Jews in German hands' in WWII. Or has revisionism shrunk to consist of nothing more than gas chamber stuff?

If the moderator says that 'numbers' is too broad then so be it, I'm outta here. You wanted me to propose a topic to debate, I did so. I don't care whether it meets your approval or not. If it's against CODOH rules for some reason then say so, clearly and honestly, and I'm outta here. If people debate the topic then I expect that they do not start going on about mass graves and gas chambers and violating the one-topic-per-thread rule, which you and the moderator keep reminding people about.

OR you can change your guidelines, and accept that discussing the Holocaust will always, always, always involve MULTIPLE topics, and stop with the one-topic-per-thread rule and stop preventing non-revisionists from debating freely and fairly on the Committee for Open Debate on the Holocaust forum.

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Re: Holocaust Demographics

Postby Hannover » 7 years 1 month ago (Fri Sep 14, 2012 4:39 pm)

Yes, you started this thread topic where your claims are completely dependent upon the 'gas chambers' allegations. So, my challenge about these mythical entities is not off topic. I'm not going to allow you to dodge the most basic of issues of logic. It's rather like you saying that 'numerous people got soaked in a heavy rain yesterday in my neighborhood', when in fact it did not rain in your neighborhood yesterday.

And sorry, Terry, the onus is upon you, the accuser, to prove that millions of Jews were murdered. That is the logic & methodology of jurisprudence.

Of interest:
'Jews of Poland. Where'd they go?'
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1612
and:
'If the Holocaust were a hoax, where did all the millions go?'
viewtopic.php?=2&t=6497&p=46675

- Hannover
If it can't happen as alleged, then it didn't.

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Re: Holocaust Demographics

Postby nickterry » 7 years 1 month ago (Fri Sep 14, 2012 5:20 pm)

Hannover wrote:Yes, you started this thread topic where your claims are completely dependent upon the 'gas chambers' allegations. So, my challenge about these mythical entities is not off topic. I'm not going to allow you to dodge the most basic of issues of logic. It's rather like you saying that 'numerous people got soaked in a heavy rain yesterday in my neighborhood', when in fact it did not rain in your neighborhood yesterday.

And sorry, Terry, the onus is upon you, the accuser, to prove that millions of Jews were murdered. That is the logic & methodology of jurisprudence.

Of interest:
'Jews of Poland. Where'd they go?'
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1612
and:
'If the Holocaust were a hoax, where did all the millions go?'
viewtopic.php?=2&t=6497&p=46675

- Hannover


So the one-topic-per-thread rule doesn't exist when you say so? That's interesting. You seem very insistent on it in other contexts when it suits you. Suddenly numbers MUST mean gas chambers. Does everything reduce to gas chambers for you, Hannover?

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Re: Holocaust Demographics

Postby Hannover » 7 years 1 month ago (Fri Sep 14, 2012 5:38 pm)

Nick Terry says:
So the one-topic-per-thread rule doesn't exist when you say so? That's interesting. You seem very insistent on it in other contexts when it suits you. Suddenly numbers MUST mean gas chambers. Does everything reduce to gas chambers for you, Hannover?

When you make assertions that are completely dependent upon the 'gas chambers', it follows logically that you must prove the 'millions in gas chambers' claim for your assertions to have any chance of being true.

Outside of the equally unsustainable claims of ca. 2 - 2.5 million Jews supposedly shot into non-existent massive pits, the storyline is left with the absurd claims of industrial, assembly line murders via 'gas chamber. That is the so called 'holocaust' as I know it. BTW, I accept as fact ... many Jews were deported to labor camps.

- Hannover
If it can't happen as alleged, then it didn't.

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Re: Holocaust Demographics

Postby Hegwood » 7 years 1 month ago (Fri Sep 14, 2012 6:55 pm)

Nick Terry

I for one am interested in why you believe 5 to 6 million Jews disappeared from Europe as a result of the holocaust. Perhaps you can provide a summary of why you believe so. Tell me what your estimates are based on.

Past estimates that I've seen were based on populations of countries before and after the war. These seem to contain some gross misrepresentations. Do you think you have something new to add? Even if you don't state your position but please be brief.

I also have questions dealing with the age and sex of alleged victims. Do your demographics provide any information on these?

Hegwood

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Re: Holocaust Demographics

Postby PotPie » 7 years 1 month ago (Fri Sep 14, 2012 11:04 pm)

Hegwood wrote:Past estimates that I've seen were based on populations of countries before and after the war. These seem to contain some gross misrepresentations. Do you think you have something new to add? Even if you don't state your position but please be brief.


Well this brings up an issue that I have with mainstream holocaust scholarship in general, which is that little that comes from the Soviet Bloc is questioned. I have a couple Van Pelt books, one of which contains an explanation of the methodology of mainstream historians in estimating death totals, and I was underimpressed. In coming days, I will try to find this extract and post it.

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Re: Holocaust Demographics

Postby borjastick » 7 years 1 month ago (Fri Sep 14, 2012 11:45 pm)

Cup and saucer, black and white, fish and chips.

Nick Terry wants to debate a slice of the holocaust that suits him because he feels he can blind us with demographics that are almost impossible to check. Impossible due to name changes, border changes, mass emigration etc. The simple fact here is not about single topic posts it is about manipulation, which Mr Terry is very skilled in. Years of practice on young and fertile minds in his lectures. If you talk about the missing 5 million then you have to discuss how they went missing and what happened to them.

Sugar and spice, get it?

The twin towers attacks on 9/11 happened, we know because we all watched it on tv. Why it happened and who died and who perpetrated it all is another matter. They are facets almost impossible to separate.
'Of the four million Jews under Nazi control in WW2, six million died and alas only five million survived.'

'We don't need evidence, we have survivors' - israeli politician

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Re: Holocaust Demographics

Postby Reviso » 7 years 1 month ago (Sat Sep 15, 2012 3:13 am)

In a note on Khrushchev's memoirs, Edward Crankshaw writes that, after the war, Stalin deported the Jews from Ukraine to Siberia. The revisionist Boisdefeu used this as an argument in the demographic question. Strangely, historians don't speak very much (if at all) of this deportation. Does anybody know a little more ? Thanks.
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Last edited by Reviso on Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:52 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Holocaust Demographics

Postby Hektor » 7 years 1 month ago (Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:42 am)

nickterry wrote:...
To start things off, I will simply state that following the work of people like Raul Hilberg, I regard the most probable number of Jewish Holocaust victims to be 5.1 to 5.3 million, this number being determined by statistical information, documents and the like, not by 'counting bodies' (which is a matter of forensics, and has not been done with any mass murder in the 20th Century). The 5.1 to 5.3 million victims have not appeared alive anywhere after the end of WWII in 1945. They are in the broadest sense, 'missing' much like the 1 million German soldiers still missing in action from WWII whose graves have not been found.
....

Mind to explain to us what the differences between missing soldiers and supposedly missing Jews are? Or is that just the same?

One first issue that comes to mind is that German soldiers are attributable to German nationality. "Missing Jews" are however just attributable to ethnicity and can have a large number of different nationalities. Jews are pretty mobile as well. Tens of thousand of Jews are "missing" in South Africa after 1994. Those that suggest they have been gassed?

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Re: Holocaust Demographics

Postby borjastick » 7 years 1 month ago (Sat Sep 15, 2012 5:12 am)

Nick Terry said that there has been no 'counting bodies' forensics in the twentieth century. I beg to differ. The Balkan wars mass murder. The mass murder at Srebrenica etc, were all forensically examined and bodies counted. A gruesome task of draining rivers and lakes and digging deep to exhume masses of dead bodies. Additionally the tsunami in south east Asia, only a few years ago, whilst not murder was a case of mass forensic examination of thousands of missing people. They were dug up, identified and repatriated, or re-buried locally.

So why not make a test case at say Treblinka. Open the ground up, forensically examine in full view of the media and independent observers and share the results immediately. This may still be hard to believe but I have an open mind and if you can prove that 700,000 bodies are there, hey presto you have proved the holocaust once and for all. My guess is this will never happen because they are scared. Why? Because there are no such numbers buried there. Oh by the way Cambodia springs to mind. Hundreds of thousands of bodies dug up and skulls etc on show so that us ignorant peasants won't deny it.
'Of the four million Jews under Nazi control in WW2, six million died and alas only five million survived.'

'We don't need evidence, we have survivors' - israeli politician

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Re: Holocaust Demographics

Postby EtienneSC » 7 years 1 month ago (Sat Sep 15, 2012 7:33 am)

Hannover wrote: When you make assertions that are completely dependent upon the 'gas chambers', it follows logically that you must prove the 'millions in gas chambers' claim for your assertions to have any chance of being true. - Hannover


Hannover has obviously not studied logic. All Nick has to prove for his overall casualty claims to have any chance of being true is that the Jews could have been killed somehow (e.g. holocaust by bullets). That again would have to be consistent with the other known facts. In my view, those discussions would be better done on separate threads.

On the substance of the argument, a major problem is that there are too many variables to arrive at reliable conclusions. These include changes of borders, movements across borders, different definitions, inclusion or otherwise of deportees and refugees in the numbers for given countries. Paul Rassinier addressed this last quite effectively to my mind.

I would compare the debate to the situation of banks in the 2008 financial crisis, where there were so many valuation models and complex financial instruments out there - on and off the balance sheet - that no-one could honestly draw any conclusions, even, as it turned out, the people in charge of the banks. As with the banks' financial reports, the complexity of the calculations is not correlated with the certainty of the conclusions you can draw.

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Re: Holocaust Demographics

Postby nickterry » 7 years 1 month ago (Sat Sep 15, 2012 7:45 am)

Hannover wrote:Nick Terry says:
So the one-topic-per-thread rule doesn't exist when you say so? That's interesting. You seem very insistent on it in other contexts when it suits you. Suddenly numbers MUST mean gas chambers. Does everything reduce to gas chambers for you, Hannover?

When you make assertions that are completely dependent upon the 'gas chambers', it follows logically that you must prove the 'millions in gas chambers' claim for your assertions to have any chance of being true.

Outside of the equally unsustainable claims of ca. 2 - 2.5 million Jews supposedly shot into non-existent massive pits, the storyline is left with the absurd claims of industrial, assembly line murders via 'gas chamber. That is the so called 'holocaust' as I know it. BTW, I accept as fact ... many Jews were deported to labor camps.

- Hannover


You are making the mistake of assuming that the burden of proof lies with one side only. That is not the case. The numbers issue involves both how many survived and how many are 'missing'/dead.

Revisionists make a number of affirmative claims which carry their own burden of proof, such as

1. 'not enough Jews in Nazi hands during WWII'
2. 'too many survivors'
3. 'compensation claims prove there were more survivors'
4. 'Jews emigrated to Israel after the war'

all these claims require evidence. There is no special exemption from this burden of proof just because you call yourself a revisionist.

These claims relate to the fate of the 9-10 million Jews in Europe. Some revisionist authors such as Rassinier or Sanning tried to go into considerable detail on this issue. Other revisionist authors such as Germar Rudolf and Friedrich Paul Berg have touched on smaller aspects and made positive assertions about the numbers issue.

For revisionism to be more widely convincing, then it would provide the world with a reasonable account of what happened to the 9-10 million Jews. If it can prove that 8-9 million survived the war and only 1 million died, then that is what would be taught in schools and universities. If it cannot reduce the number of 'missing' from 5-6 million then it will forever have a problem convincing an awful lot of people who will always ask, what happened then?

If you say 'Jews survived the war' then you need to prove this. If you say 'Jews did not die in gas chambers' then that is simply a negationist statement, and does not explain what actually happened. It seems on the whole that you are happy with your negationism, but people outside revisionist circles are not at all happy with that, because it leaves unanswered questions.

And by the way, 'burden of proof lies on the accuser' also affects revisionists. Revisionists accuse Jews worldwide, Israel, the Soviet Union, and many other countries of perpetrating a massive hoax to hide the survival of millions of Jews.

Now, either revisionists want to make better arguments, or they have all the answers already, and should be working out how to present their wonderful findings to convince the world and make real progress instead of being stuck on internet forums with a few hundred members. If you think you have all the answers, then I am not needed here at all, nor is any other non-revisionist, you need to go out into the wider world, and start convincing people in really large numbers, and not be stuck on an internet forum with a few hundred members.

If revisionists want to make better arguments, then the numbers issue is a really important one. And it stands separate from whether there were gas chambers, 'for the sake of argument'. Of course the two issues are connected! But not only does your one-topic-per-thread rule dictate a separation, so do normal analytical methods and procedures.

One can abstract gas chambers from numbers and then decide on the qualitative evidence whether or not they existed in Nazi Germany. Carlo Mattogno has recently accepted that the Nazis used poison gas in a gas chamber to kill Jews at Natzweiler in his book Schiffbruch. He continues to deny every other gas chamber, but he has accepted that a gas chamber was used to kill Jews - for the purposes of harvesting their skeletons for an anthropological collection. So if you want to debate gas chambers from a revisionist perspective, then first you might need to talk to Carlo Mattogno about why he conceded a gas chamber at all.

Now, if one abstracts out gas chambers then one might conclude as do revisionists that they didn't generally exist (except maybe Natzweiler if you're Carlo Mattogno). But this would leave unanswered the question of what happened to the circa 2.6 million Jews deported to the camps conventionally understood to have gas chambers. The 'question of the gas chambers' doesn't answer 'the numbers question' very well at all.

Or one can abstract numbers from the gas chambers and try to work out how many Jews survived and how many are missing. This in turn does not say anything about whether gas chambers existed or not, but demographic history has a good track record of counting populations and establishing the numbers who ceased to exist in many other historical catastrophes, like the Holodomor. And the current consensus is that the demographics of European Jews in WWII indicate a massive population drop not only in Europe but worldwide. Unless this population drop is rigorously re-examined and recalculated using new evidence, then it will forever exist in the historical record. Which will forever cause revisionism problems convincing the world about the gas chambers.

We are not going to agree on the qualitative issue of the existence of gas chambers, because you are a revisionist and I am not. But reasonable and sensible revisionists know they can learn from non-revisionists to make better arguments on specific issues which have been, frankly, massively neglected by revisionism as a whole in the past 25 years.

To be honest, of course it suits me quite a lot if revisionists continue to make really, really stupid arguments like 'all Jews emigrated to Israel after the war' or 'compensation claims prove millions of Jews survived the Holocaust', because every stupid argument made by a revisionist makes revisionism as a whole look stupid, and discredits revisionism, limiting its growth or turning people off, because people out there in the real world are amazed at how facile and asinine an argument like that actually is.

One other such facile argument would be of course 'Jews went where Jews are', which leaves so many unanswered questions that it is amazing that revisionists think they are being at all clever in making such a hopelessly vague assertion.

It also suits me if revisionists continue to be unable to answer questions, as for example explaining what happened to the 9-10 million Jews of Europe, in a reasonable level of detail, because not being able to answer questions discredits revisionism also.

Sure, maybe you don't want to answer the question because you would rather talk about gas chambers. But the same could be said about me. I don't want to discuss gas chambers in this thread because they are more or less all that has been discussed by revisionists for 30+ years ever since Faurisson, and because I am spending enough time already looking at gas chambers in my professional work right now. So a change of topic would do everyone some good, for the time being.

Of course, if you are really so convinced that the gas chambers + numbers issue are directly connected and you already have all the answers, then simply nominate the 100% absolute best revisionist work which covers both in thorough, adequate detail, and let's start a thread discussing all aspects of that revisionist work, suspending your one-topic-per-thread rule because you have already said that numbers includes gas chambers. At the very least such a work would be a book and it would have at the very least a whole chapter on the numbers issue which could answer some very simple, basic questions.

Unfortunately, you and I both know such a work doesn't actually exist, because revisionists have neglected the numbers issue pretty badly over the past 25+ years. But maybe you disagree and want to nominate the book. Then I can go away and read that book, and let you know what I think of your nomination.

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Re: Holocaust Demographics

Postby nickterry » 7 years 1 month ago (Sat Sep 15, 2012 7:56 am)

borjastick wrote:Nick Terry said that there has been no 'counting bodies' forensics in the twentieth century. I beg to differ. The Balkan wars mass murder. The mass murder at Srebrenica etc, were all forensically examined and bodies counted. A gruesome task of draining rivers and lakes and digging deep to exhume masses of dead bodies. Additionally the tsunami in south east Asia, only a few years ago, whilst not murder was a case of mass forensic examination of thousands of missing people. They were dug up, identified and repatriated, or re-buried locally.

So why not make a test case at say Treblinka. Open the ground up, forensically examine in full view of the media and independent observers and share the results immediately. This may still be hard to believe but I have an open mind and if you can prove that 700,000 bodies are there, hey presto you have proved the holocaust once and for all. My guess is this will never happen because they are scared. Why? Because there are no such numbers buried there. Oh by the way Cambodia springs to mind. Hundreds of thousands of bodies dug up and skulls etc on show so that us ignorant peasants won't deny it.


True, 'counting bodies' has been done more often from the 1990s, but it has not been done in the many conflicts which have devastated Africa in the same period (eg the war in the Congo, where estimates run into the millions), and it certainly wasn't done for statistically comparable megadeaths like the Russian Civil War or Holodomor, which have been studied exclusively by demographic and documentary methods. By comparison to the study of these conflicts, we have a lot more 'counted bodies' for the Holocaust, but that is a separate topic.

Demographics is a separate discipline to forensic archaeology. A demographic study can make use of forensic evidence if it is available, but it is not a requirement to do so. A demographic calculation can establish parameters which can be scrutinised more closely.

Also, demographic studies will often focus on issues such as emigration, which leave no one dead, and simply leave a documentary trace. How many Jews immigrated to Israel after 1945/48 is not a question which has anything to do with forensics, but it is obviously very important regarding the number of the survivors.


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