Study: People Don't Change Their Minds, Even When Proven Wrong

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Lamprecht
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Study: People Don't Change Their Minds, Even When Proven Wrong

Postby Lamprecht » 5 months 1 week ago (Sat May 04, 2019 8:13 pm)

Well, it's something we all know from experience debating the "Holocaust" but here is a study showing that people refuse to change their mind even if they are proven wrong and it costs them money. And now you understand why they're clamoring so hard for these "Holocaust education" laws in every US state, even though it's taught to every American school child anyway.

Confirmation Bias: Stock Market Traders Who Forecast Changes In Market Won't Adjust Predictions, Even With New Information

Nov 17, 2015 07:11 PM
By Steve Smith

Everyone has that one friend who will argue a fact to death, even if what they believe is wrong. A new study from the University of Iowa has found this friend will argue their point no matter what, even if you prove them wrong and even if it ends up costing them money.

According to study co-author Tom Gruca, professor of marketing at the Tippie College of Business, this form of confirmation bias likely affects equity analysts who are responsible for forecasting changes in the stock market — it prevents new data from affecting their initial predictions. In a press release, Gruca said the new research could therefore help investors understand financial markets by giving them a glimpse into how stock traders think.

For the study, Gruca looked at student traders who were participated in the Iowa Electronic Markets, an online futures market at the Tippie College of Business where contract payoffs are based on real-world events. From 1998 to 2008, student traders analyzed market trends for 18 new movies, and bought and sold real-money contracts while trying to predict four-week opening box office totals of each movie.

Gruca found that even as initial box office receipts showed which stocks were rising or falling, the student traders ignored that information and stuck to their initial estimates. This kept the stock prices at relatively stable levels because nobody was buying or selling, as they were all influenced by confirmation bias. To find evidence of confirmation bias, the students traders explained why they forecasted the way they did before they began trading. Their explanations then exposed a phenomenon called the explanation effect — once someone has expressed their beliefs, they stand by them no matter what contradictory evidence may appear.

Gruca also had a control group that traded in several markets; they weren’t asked to write down or explain their forecasts, thus keeping clearing them of the explanation effect. Stock prices in these markets were much more active as well, which happened among the control group because they were more apt to adjust their opinions and use the new information while trading.

"This study shows that when all traders in a market have the same bias — in this case, confirmation bias — market prices are not efficient and do not reflect all of the information available," Gruca said. "However, if some traders are not biased, then market prices efficiently reflect new, relevant information."

Source: Cipriano, M, Gruca, T. The Power of Priors: How Confirmation Bias Impacts Market Prices. The Journal of Prediction Markets . 2015.
https://archive.is/0vx9h



Another interesting article, describing some additional experiments. An excerpt:
Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds
New discoveries about the human mind show the limitations of reason.
By Elizabeth Kolbert
February 19, 2017

In 1975, researchers at Stanford invited a group of undergraduates to take part in a study about suicide. They were presented with pairs of suicide notes. In each pair, one note had been composed by a random individual, the other by a person who had subsequently taken his own life. The students were then asked to distinguish between the genuine notes and the fake ones.

Some students discovered that they had a genius for the task. Out of twenty-five pairs of notes, they correctly identified the real one twenty-four times. Others discovered that they were hopeless. They identified the real note in only ten instances.

As is often the case with psychological studies, the whole setup was a put-on. Though half the notes were indeed genuine—they’d been obtained from the Los Angeles County coroner’s office—the scores were fictitious. The students who’d been told they were almost always right were, on average, no more discerning than those who had been told they were mostly wrong.

In the second phase of the study, the deception was revealed. The students were told that the real point of the experiment was to gauge their responses to thinking they were right or wrong. (This, it turned out, was also a deception.) Finally, the students were asked to estimate how many suicide notes they had actually categorized correctly, and how many they thought an average student would get right. At this point, something curious happened. The students in the high-score group said that they thought they had, in fact, done quite well—significantly better than the average student—even though, as they’d just been told, they had zero grounds for believing this. Conversely, those who’d been assigned to the low-score group said that they thought they had done significantly worse than the average student—a conclusion that was equally unfounded.

“Once formed,” the researchers observed dryly, “impressions are remarkably perseverant.”


A few years later, a new set of Stanford students was recruited for a related study. The students were handed packets of information about a pair of firefighters, Frank K. and George H. Frank’s bio noted that, among other things, he had a baby daughter and he liked to scuba dive. George had a small son and played golf. The packets also included the men’s responses on what the researchers called the Risky-Conservative Choice Test. According to one version of the packet, Frank was a successful firefighter who, on the test, almost always went with the safest option. In the other version, Frank also chose the safest option, but he was a lousy firefighter who’d been put “on report” by his supervisors several times. Once again, midway through the study, the students were informed that they’d been misled, and that the information they’d received was entirely fictitious. The students were then asked to describe their own beliefs. What sort of attitude toward risk did they think a successful firefighter would have? The students who’d received the first packet thought that he would avoid it. The students in the second group thought he’d embrace it.

Even after the evidence “for their beliefs has been totally refuted, people fail to make appropriate revisions in those beliefs,” the researchers noted. In this case, the failure was “particularly impressive,” since two data points would never have been enough information to generalize from.
...
Much more to read: https://archive.is/J8oCM


I truly wonder how many people are capable of changing their minds when presented with actual evidence. Of course, in none of these studies, is the correct position seen as "evil" or "wicked" like Holocaust revisionism is made out to be.

Reminds me of the following quote:

“You can't convince a believer of anything; for their belief is not based on evidence, it's based on a deep seated need to believe”
- Carl Sagan
"There is a principal which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments, and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance -- that principal is contempt prior to investigation."
-- Herbert Spencer

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Re: Study: People Don't Change Their Minds, Even When Proven Wrong

Postby flimflam » 5 months 1 week ago (Sun May 05, 2019 7:26 pm)

The Holohoax is supported 100% by the government, the media, and, believe it or not, academia.

And the propaganda is repeated endlessly by government, media, and academia.

Every person, every institution that a person respects, the whole of society, supports the hoax.

So, it's not surprising that John Q. Public is not persuaded by a few facts from some cockamamie individual, i.e. you or me.

It's not an 'even playing field', it's every university, every government, in the entire world, versus .... you or me.

Orwell takes it a step further, he describes the object of thought control as an internalized reaction, called crimestop, which is ...
a stopping short, as though by instinct, at the threshold of any dangerous thought . . . and of being bored or repelled by any train of thought which is capable of leading in a heretical direction.

and this is not a hypothetical theory, this is as real as rain, and I'm sure you've seen it, I have.

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Re: Study: People Don't Change Their Minds, Even When Proven Wrong

Postby Lamprecht » 5 months 1 week ago (Sun May 05, 2019 7:57 pm)

I think there is a difference levels of belief. All revisionists or "deniers" used to believe the Holocaust, but I suspect quite a few of us were not "true believers" as in, emotionally invested in believing this specific set of events.

For the most part, "experts" or authority is a good way to determine what is true, specifically for non-controversial topics. But topics which are controversial, well, they are controversial for a reason. Most people believe the "Holocaust" happened, but don't know the true story.


Apparently, 1 in 3 millennials aren't sure if the earth is flat: https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2018/04 ... th-survey/

I don't think they have been hoodwinked by "flat earth propaganda" but rather, they simply do not trust the "authority" (schools, mass media, government) to be honest with them. They will think:
"well, the earth is probably not flat because government, schools, and media tell me so but I haven't personally taken a rocket into space, but at the same time they lie all the time so... who knows?"

It is the same with the "Holocaust" and that is why the hoaxters are so focused on censorship: Their positions can't stand up to scrutiny in a fair debate. If you have never read any "Holocaust denial" literature, and have only been shown photos of piles of corpses and out-of-context/misquoted Hitler speeches, and cherry picked testimony ... you'll probably just assume the "Holocaust" story is true, even if you don't have an emotional investment in believing that it is.

Anyway, my point here was just to refresh in everyone's minds for their next debate... You can't convince a true believer of anything. Even if it costs them money to be wrong, and you have proven them wrong, they will still believe it.

And this works doubly well for something that tugs on your emotions, hence why they use heart-wrenching photos to teach the "Holocaust" to kids, probably the only photos of piles of corpses a child ever sees by the time they are adults is from WWII concentration camps.

Getting emotional might actually help us remember things, not make us forget them
Researchers from New York University have built on this knowledge and found evidence that reacting to something emotionally — like watching a sad scene in a film — may also improve how well you remember something you've seen, and this memory boost could continue as much as 30 minutes after experiencing the emotion.
https://archive.is/S5Eli


Also in Hannover's thread here, I talk about how false memories are formed and how children's memories are more malleable:
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=12239#p91024
"There is a principal which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments, and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance -- that principal is contempt prior to investigation."
-- Herbert Spencer

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Re: Study: People Don't Change Their Minds, Even When Proven Wrong

Postby Hektor » 5 months 1 week ago (Mon May 06, 2019 5:53 am)

flimflam wrote:The Holohoax is supported 100% by the government, the media, and, believe it or not, academia.

And the propaganda is repeated endlessly by government, media, and academia.
.....


Depends on whether you speak to academics publicly or in private. There is a lot of academic historians that would acknowledge problems with the orthodox Holocaust narrative, when you converse with them in private. Virtually all of them would never do that publicly, though.

But I get your point. Holocaust milieu control is almost absolute. And more than 90% of people will only change their mind, if the various signal stations have done that. Still the fact that there are some people challenging the narrative, shakes their faith to some extent. It's part of unfreezing and preparing a general change of mind.

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Re: Study: People Don't Change Their Minds, Even When Proven Wrong

Postby slob » 5 months 1 week ago (Mon May 06, 2019 7:21 am)

Image
Taken from here...

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Re: Study: People Don't Change Their Minds, Even When Proven Wrong

Postby flimflam » 5 months 1 week ago (Mon May 06, 2019 9:24 am)

Hektor wrote:Depends on whether you speak to academics publicly or in private. There is a lot of academic historians that would acknowledge problems with the orthodox Holocaust narrative, when you converse with them in private.


Reference?

Hektor wrote:Virtually all of them would never do that publicly, though.


Virtually? Not one academic historian in the US disputes the holohoax, I'd be happy to find out I'm wrong.

In Europe? Zero.

Russia? Zero.

Elsewhere in the world?

Hektor wrote:Still the fact that there are some people challenging the narrative, shakes their faith to some extent. It's part of unfreezing and preparing a general change of mind.


Butz wrote 'The Hoax of the Twentieth Century' in 1976 !!!!! We are making damn little progress.
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Re: Study: People Don't Change Their Minds, Even When Proven Wrong

Postby Hannover » 5 months 1 week ago (Mon May 06, 2019 10:16 am)

flimflam:
Virtually? Not one academic historian in the US disputes the holohoax, I'd be happy to find out I'm wrong. In Europe? Zero
Off the top of my head there's American, Dr. Arthur Butz, the late Frenchmen, Dr. Robert Faurisson.

Of course, Revisionists are arrested in Europe for free speech & Thought Crimes, and highly 'discouraged' everywhere else.

- Hannover

No alleged human remains of millions in allegedly known locations to see, no 'holocaust'.
If it can't happen as alleged, then it didn't.

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Re: Study: People Don't Change Their Minds, Even When Proven Wrong

Postby flimflam » 5 months 1 week ago (Mon May 06, 2019 10:20 am)

Hannover wrote:Off the top of my head there's American, Dr. Arthur Butz, the late Frenchmen, Dr. Robert Faurisson.


Butz was not a historian, he was an EE prof., now emeritus I think. Faurisson was fired from his academic post in 1991.

N. Kollerstrom was a academic researcher but was promptly fired after writing 'Breaking the Spell'.

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Re: Study: People Don't Change Their Minds, Even When Proven Wrong

Postby Hannover » 5 months 1 week ago (Mon May 06, 2019 10:38 am)

flimflam wrote:
Hannover wrote:Off the top of my head there's American, Dr. Arthur Butz, the late Frenchmen, Dr. Robert Faurisson.


Butz was not a historian, he was an EE prof., now emeritus I think. Faurisson was fired from his academic post in 1991.

N. Kollerstrom was a academic researcher but was promptly fired after writing 'Breaking the Spell'.

So now it's "historian"?

Butz is not emeritus: https://www.mccormick.northwestern.edu/ ... rthur.html
His book has been revised since 1976.

Your other examples prove my point. What is your point?

Thanks.

- Hannover

No alleged human remains of millions in allegedly known locations to see, no 'holocaust'
If it can't happen as alleged, then it didn't.

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Re: Study: People Don't Change Their Minds, Even When Proven Wrong

Postby flimflam » 5 months 1 week ago (Mon May 06, 2019 11:12 am)

Hannover wrote:Your other examples prove my point. What is your point?


I stated my point in my first post, it is that not a single US politician, govt. official, media spokesperson, or academic in the US disputes the holohoax. Not one. This is one of my standard tropes, I usually add 'save Arthur Butz', but I've been thinking of historians lately.

And, I'm curious if a single academic historian in the world disputes the holohoax.

Further, academic historians in the US have tenure, they can't be fired, their purpose in life is to properly interpret history, and not one is disputing the holohoax.

Further still ... recently a biology prof at Middlebury College in Vermont was suspended for posing a problem in a chemistry class that offended the Jews. What did the Middlebury history faculty have to say about the subject? Absolutely nothing.

So, I wrote a long email, the Case For Holocaust Denial, and sent it to each history faculty member. It began ...

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT
In 1990 the US attacked Iraq in Operation Desert Shield with a cruise missile attack on Baghdad,
Image
and the US has been attacking countries in the ME from that point on, till today, ,Wesley Clark - US to attack 7 countries in 5 years -

The US military is dropping tens of thousands of bombs on the ME every years, Trump the Military Hawk - https://www.vox.com/world/2018/1/30/16925544/trump-state-union-2018-military-2017
The military dropped nearly 40,000 bombs in 2017 compared to the around 31,000 released during Obama’s last year.

As Walt and Mearsheirmer put it in The Israel Lobby - https://www.lrb.co.uk/v28/n06/john-mear ... rael-lobby
The combination of unwavering support for Israel and the related effort to spread ‘democracy’ throughout the region has inflamed Arab and Islamic opinion and jeopardised not only US security but that of much of the rest of the world. This situation has no equal in American political history. Why has the US been willing to set aside its own security and that of many of its allies in order to advance the interests of another state?

Succinctly, the US is fighting in the ME to protect Israel, and one reason is because of western guilt over the Holocaust.

And went on from there. A great email ... :) ... The result ..... crickets.

The point is I think we should be challenging academic historians. And I think we should figure out the best way to do it. And, I think we have to take the argument to them.
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Re: Study: People Don't Change Their Minds, Even When Proven Wrong

Postby Hannover » 5 months 1 week ago (Mon May 06, 2019 11:18 am)

flimflam said:
The point is I think we should be challenging academic historians. And I think we should figure out the best way to do it.

Butz wrote 'The Hoax of the Twentieth Century' in 1976 !!!!! We are making damn little progress.

Yet we are doing so on a daily basis. see CODOH website.
And how about ALL of these written since Butz, now that's "progress".
Holocaust Handbooks, Documentaries, & Videos
http://holocausthandbooks.com/index.php?main_page=1
Image

What are you doing to challenge academic historians?

- Hannover

No alleged human remains of millions in allegedly known locations to see, no 'holocaust'
If it can't happen as alleged, then it didn't.

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Re: Study: People Don't Change Their Minds, Even When Proven Wrong

Postby flimflam » 5 months 1 week ago (Mon May 06, 2019 11:34 am)

Hannover wrote:Yet we are on a daily basis. CODOH website and:
Holocaust Handbooks, Documentaries, & Videos
http://holocausthandbooks.com/index.php?main_page=1
Image


I'm saying we need to challenge them actively, to take the argument to them. All it takes is a mailing list to put the argument in front of them. But the problem remains of getting them to respond. An anonymous email is weak, if the email is from a real person at a real organization it would carry more weight. That would be a starting point.

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Re: Study: People Don't Change Their Minds, Even When Proven Wrong

Postby Hannover » 5 months 1 week ago (Mon May 06, 2019 11:47 am)

flimflam:
I'm saying we need to challenge them actively, to take the argument to them. All it takes is a mailing list to put the argument in front of them. But the problem remains of getting them to respond. An anonymous email is weak, if the email is from a real person at a real organization it would carry more weight. That would be a starting point.
Top

- Who is "we"?

- Have you compiled such a mailing list and sent out Revisionist arguments?

- CODOH routinely sends inquiries, challenges to 'academics'.

- Have you put a few bucks where your mouth is?
https://codoh.com/donate/

Hannover

No alleged human remains of millions in allegedly known locations to see, no 'holocaust'
If it can't happen as alleged, then it didn't.

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Re: Study: People Don't Change Their Minds, Even When Proven Wrong

Postby Lamprecht » 5 months 1 week ago (Mon May 06, 2019 12:03 pm)

America may not criminalize revisionism, but openly denying that Jews were exterminated means you cannot even travel to mainland Europe.

https://www.jta.org/2019/04/19/united-s ... ust-denier

Read above article on Mr. Link, a former historian

I think there are more than is made out to be. They keep their mouths shut for obvious reasons
"There is a principal which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments, and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance -- that principal is contempt prior to investigation."
-- Herbert Spencer

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Re: Study: People Don't Change Their Minds, Even When Proven Wrong

Postby JLAD Prove Me Wrong » 5 months 1 week ago (Mon May 06, 2019 1:34 pm)

Lamprecht wrote:America may not criminalize revisionism, but openly denying that Jews were exterminated means you cannot even travel to mainland Europe.

https://www.jta.org/2019/04/19/united-s ... ust-denier

Read above article on Mr. Link, a former historian

I think there are more than is made out to be. They keep their mouths shut for obvious reasons


Lamprecht, there is no evidence that Link was barred from Europe, or was a revisionist, aside from terrible arguments from the ADL, which is a gang of racial supremacists.

more on Link viewtopic.php?f=2&t=12424
If your beliefs cannot stand up to your own sincere scrutiny and skeptical evaluation, they are not worth having.

https://freespeechmonika.wordpress.com/ ... t-details/


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